Gulf attacks spread past the strait

The Novus Data Briefing
Wednesday, 21 October 2026

Strait of Hormuz from the ISS. File image, 2022. NASA, public domain.

Good morning. Suez Canal transits ran 15% above their 2025 average in the latest IMF PortWatch week, the only plus sign in today's shipping table. The canal's comeback is one of today's four stories. The others: Gulf attacks moving inside the strait, diesel turning up again and a first court test of the Canada tariffs.

Rapid fire

• Low-value imports face earlier deadlines. US Customs wants entries for shipments worth $2,500 or less filed by arrival, not 15 days after, The Loadstar reported on 20 October 2026.

• Boxship orderbook hits a new high. New MSC and HMM orders lifted the post-2009 orderbook to 16.2m TEU, 46.5% of the fleet, Seatrade Maritime reported.

• Sanctioned tankers may return. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on 19 October the US is building an approval process for blacklisted tankers to trade under approved owners; analysts see 14–24 VLCCs qualifying, per Splash247.

• India–New Zealand deal in force. From 20 October New Zealand removes tariffs on all its tariff lines; India liberalises about 70% of its own, ANI reported.

Hormuz and Musandam. File image, 2018. NASA, public domain.

Chokepoints and canal transits

Gulf attacks spread past the strait into Saudi waters

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 20 October 2026 that mines had set two tankers ablaze on a route Tehran has not authorised; neither ship has been identified, gCaptain reported, and the US military has called earlier such claims false. Verified attacks are spreading west: on 18 October the Joint Maritime Information Center raised its Arabian Gulf threat level to "substantial", after a tanker was hit 68 nautical miles off Jubail. That puts loading terminals and anchorages inside the risk zone, not just the transit, which should keep war-risk cover and waiting times high even as crude moves. Next: UKMTO's weekly overview, expected Friday.

Truck diesel pumps, Florida. File photo, 2025. DanTD, CC BY 4.0.

Energy and bunker costs

US diesel turns up again as fuel cargoes lag crude

The US average on-highway diesel price rose 9.7 cents to $6.276 a gallon as of 19 October 2026, the Energy Information Administration said, its first rise after three weekly falls. The agency's October outlook had forecast retail diesel staying above $6 through October. Crude is moving: Wright suggested Gulf crude flows were back to about 80% of pre-war levels while refined-product shipments stayed constrained, Investing.com reported. Many truckload fuel surcharges reset weekly against this EIA price, so shippers are likely to see the rise within about a week (confidence: estimated). Next: EIA's next weekly price, due 27 October.

Great Bitter Lake, Suez Canal. File image, 2023. Sentinel Hub/Pierre Markuse, CC BY 2.0.

Container shipping and freight rates

Maersk tells Suez it aims to be fully back by March

Maersk's chief operating officer, Rabab Boulos, told the Suez Canal Authority on 20 October 2026 that she hopes all the group's services will use the canal by March 2027, the Egyptian Gazette reported. Maersk made 276 canal transits in January to September, against 146 a year earlier, the authority said, per The Middle East Observer. BIMCO says the extra demand of about 10% created by Cape diversions is shrinking fast, which frees ships for Maersk and its rivals and should add pressure on Asia–Europe rates (confidence: estimated). Next: Gemini's new AE18 service is scheduled to leave Shanghai on 22 November, The Loadstar reported.

Ambassador Bridge, Windsor–Detroit. File photo, 2025. Crisco 1492, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Trade policy, tariffs and export controls

Cheese importer brings first court test of Canada tariffs

Gellert Global Group, a US food importer, sued at the Court of International Trade on 20 October 2026 to block the 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods, its lawyers said. It is the first challenge to that use of the 1930 statute, Reason reported. The suit argues the Trade Act of 1974 displaced it, and that cheese duties began a week after cheese was listed on 8 September, inside a 30-day wait. The administration cited Canadian liquor, automobile and dairy policies, the suit says. Importers, Gellert included, pay meanwhile (confidence: reported); the suit seeks refunds with interest. Next: a ruling on its injunction request.

Shipping volume

IMF PortWatch, data through 18 October 2026. PortWatch counts only ships visible on AIS; the JMIC advisory logged 254 Hormuz transits in the week to 14 October, gCaptain reported. Xeneta put Asia–North Europe spot at $2,946 per 40ft, up 2.5% on the week, Seatrade Maritime reported.

The six

Closes on Tuesday, 20 October 2026.

Settlements and closes from Yahoo Finance contract histories (Brent Dec, diesel Nov, copper Oct), the same contracts as Sunday.

Eight finer points

1. Salalah concession ends. Oman will not extend Salalah Port Services' concession, run by APM Terminals, beyond 1 November 2028, The Loadstar reported; the hub handled 4.3m TEU in 2025.

2. Queues off Fujairah. About 217 vessels were waiting at anchor near Fujairah and Khorfakkan on 18 October, the JMIC said, per Splash247.

3. Tank-car backlog cut. FreightCar America dropped 1,285 tank-car retrofits from backlog, doubting the customer will pay, and cut 2026 deliveries to 3,100–3,300, its 19 October release said.

4. Texas LNG seeks delay. Citing litigation, Glenfarne asked the Energy Department to push Texas LNG's export deadline to 2032; comments opened 20 October, Seatrade Maritime reported.

5. Aqaba transit jumps. Transit cargo through Jordan's Aqaba hit 1.8m tonnes in January–September, from 38,900 tonnes, mostly grain, Splash247 reported.

6. Malaysian rail freight date. East Coast Rail Link freight is due to start on 12 December; the Port Klang section needs another year, Malay Mail reported.

7. Houthis claim Yanbu strike. The Houthis claimed strikes on an Aramco facility at Yanbu, on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, Investing.com reported.

8. Jeddah joins ME2. Maersk said on 19 October it will add Jeddah to its Suez-routed India–Europe ME2 service, El Estrecho Digital reported.

See you Friday,
Gavin

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