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Articles
Analysis written for the site: long-term reviews that step back over months, and shorter articles on what is moving now.
Articles
Panama Canal eases limits but warns of a 2027 dry-season risk
Daily slots are back to 33 and the draft limit is 49 feet, but the authority says the water deficit persists and vessels without a booking face long waits.
China tariff exclusions on 178 products lapse Monday night unless USTR extends them
The exclusions run out at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on 9 November 2026, and importers are charged by the date goods enter the US, not the date they ship.
Pacific container rates fall as US import demand eases
Drewry's index fell 3% to $4,429 on 29 October, and Drewry expects Pacific rates to fall again while Asia to Europe holds steady.
High oil prices pay Russia most and leave the Gulf behind
Brent has averaged $27 more a barrel this year. I estimate that rise is worth about $65 billion a year to Russia, more than to any other exporter.
Strong El Niño forecast puts Panama's next dry season at risk
NOAA gives an 83% chance of the strongest El Niño since 1950 in October to December. During the 2023 El Niño, the canal cut transits to 22 a day.
IEEPA tariff refunds pass $120 billion as a third phase opens
Customs reports about $122 billion certified for repayment after the Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorise tariffs. Claims on older entries opened on 6 October 2026.
178 China tariff exclusions expire on 9 November unless USTR acts
Goods covered by the exclusions face Section 301 duties if entered after 11:59 p.m. on 9 November 2026. No extension had been published by 13 October.
Spot box rates are 2.6 times last year's; carriers' rates lag
Drewry's index stood at $4,351 per 40ft container on 8 October 2026, against $1,651 a year earlier, while Hapag-Lloyd's realised rate rose about 9% in the second quarter.
Panama Canal restores some capacity after a rainfall squeeze
The canal offers 33 daily booking slots from 15 October 2026 and a deeper Neopanamax draft, but a water deficit remains and NOAA expects a strong El Niño.
Urea's war spike has faded as China lets exports resume
The nitrogen fertiliser peaked at $857 a tonne in April 2026 and was $408 in September, below a year earlier. The price of diammonium phosphate has kept climbing.
China's rare-earth magnet shipments to the US fell 21% in August
The truce suspended China's broadest export controls, but licensing rules from April 2025 still cover seven heavy rare earths and magnets made from them.
Thirteen dates that will set trade costs into January 2027
Eight of the thirteen dates fall after the US midterm elections on 3 November 2026, and six of them fall between 9 November and 15 December.
Forced-labour tariffs of 10% to 12.5% now cover 60 economies
New Section 301 duties took effect on 24 July 2026, as a temporary global surcharge expired. Each country's rate depends on its rules on imports made with forced labour.
Container ships return to Suez while Red Sea tanker traffic falls
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are moving four more services back to Suez, while tanker transits at Bab al-Mandab fell after a Houthi blockade of Saudi-linked shipping.
USMCA moves to yearly reviews after the US declines to extend
The agreement stays in force until 2036, but its future will now be reopened every year. Mexico has become a far larger source of US imports than China.
New US duty on Brazil exempts beef, coffee and aircraft
A 25% duty on Brazilian goods took effect on 22 July 2026 with long exemptions. August imports beat a year earlier, when a 40% tariff had just taken effect.
US-China trade truce extended two months, to 10 January 2027
The September summit kept last year's suspensions and produced recommendations for tariff cuts on $30 billion of goods each way, but left rare earths and chips unresolved.
US hiring slows to 29,000 as fuel-driven inflation outpaces pay
Payrolls rose by 29,000 in September 2026. In August, average hourly pay was 3.1% higher than a year earlier while consumer prices were 3.4% higher.
Fed lifts rates for the first time since 2023
The Fed raised rates on 16 September 2026, and minutes released on 7 October show most officials expect another rise by year end.
Europe's gas storage stands near 73% as Qatari LNG stays offline
European gas cost more than eight times US gas in September 2026, a gap that is likely to steer spare LNG cargoes this winter.
Diesel above $6 keeps US parcel fuel surcharges near 29%
US retail diesel cost 67% more on 5 October 2026 than a year earlier. The diesel-crude price gap, a gauge of refiners' margins, nearly tripled in September.
Hormuz looks empty on ship trackers, yet Gulf crude is moving
Public AIS data show under four transits a day through Hormuz in September 2026, against 86 a day in 2025. Cargo trackers say most Gulf crude still gets out.
Spot Brent tops $125 as Gulf barrels stay shut in
Spot Brent was 77% above its pre-war level on 14 October 2026. The EIA expects a $105 fourth-quarter average, but oil for prompt delivery trades far above futures.
The Novus Data Briefing