Thirteen dates that will set trade costs into January 2027

What is scheduled

The US government is funded only until 11 December 2026, under a stopgap bill the president signed on 2 September. The Federal Reserve meets on 27–28 October and 8–9 December, according to its calendar, after minutes showed most officials judged another rate rise likely to be appropriate by the end of the year. September consumer prices, published on 14 October, were 3.7% higher than a year earlier, and 2.6% higher excluding food and energy, up from 3.4% and 2.4% in August. US midterm elections are on 3 November, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Trade deadlines cluster after the election. The 178 remaining exclusions from Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods expire at 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on 9 November, according to a USTR notice. The suspension of US port fees under the Section 301 action on China's maritime and shipbuilding sectors runs through the same date, according to a Federal Register notice. Fees would apply again from 10 November unless USTR issues another modification, FreightWaves reported on 28 September. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on 23 September that the conditions of the US-China truce would stay in effect until 10 January 2027, Supply Chain Dive reported, adding that the White House had yet to document the extension. USTR had published no notice extending the exclusions or the port-fee suspension by 13 October. China's one-year suspension of its ban on exports to the US of dual-use items related to gallium, germanium and antimony runs until 27 November 2026, according to China Briefing, which published that date in November 2025. Whether that suspension was extended with the wider truce had not been reported by 13 October in the sources reviewed.

Two summits fall in the same stretch. The 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting is scheduled for Shenzhen on 18–19 November. The G20 leaders' summit is scheduled for 14–15 December at Trump National Doral Miami, the president's resort in Doral, Florida, according to the State Department.

Three other dates matter for specific trades. Seven OPEC+ members, who met on 4 October and kept required production for November at the September level, meet again on 1 November. USTR is taking public comments on the operation of the USMCA, the trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada, until 12 January 2027. In Brazil, a presidential runoff on 25 October between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will decide who handles the dispute over the 25% US duty on Brazilian goods, which carries exemptions,, in force since 22 July. Mr Bolsonaro led the first round with about 47% to Mr Lula's 45%, according to NPR.

Why it matters

Several of these deadlines can each change the landed cost of goods within days (inferred). An expired exclusion puts the Section 301 tariff back on goods entered after the cut-off. If the port-fee suspension lapses on 9 November, fees would apply again from 10 November, according to FreightWaves. A lapse in federal funding could slow the agencies that publish data and process trade paperwork (inferred). Importers of excluded goods have a reason to enter shipments before 9 November; if many do, it would show first in transpacific bookings for October and early November (inferred).

The US elections matter to trade because Congress writes appropriations and can legislate on tariffs and trade agreements, while tariffs themselves have been set by the executive branch under authorities such as Section 301. Novus Data takes no view on the outcome; the date matters because several trade deadlines follow it closely.

Who it reaches

Importers of goods covered by China exclusions (sector). The 178 exclusions end on 9 November unless extended. Confidence: reported. Source: USTR, 1 December 2025.

Manufacturers using gallium, germanium and antimony (sector). China's suspension of its export ban runs to 27 November, and semiconductor and defence supply chains use these metals. Confidence: reported for the date, inferred for the exposure. Source: China Briefing, November 2025.

Federal contractors and agencies (sector). Funding runs to 11 December under the stopgap. Confidence: reported. Source: White House, 2 September 2026.

What would change this view

• An early extension. USTR could extend the China exclusions or the port-fee suspension in line with the truce date Mr Bessent gave, or the White House could formally document the truce extension. Watch the Federal Register.
• A full-year funding bill. Passage before 11 December would remove one deadline.
• Fed data. September consumer prices, which showed core inflation rising to 2.6% from 2.4%, will shape expectations for the 27–28 October meeting, and whether the Fed follows its September increase with a second one.

Sources

1. Congressional Bill H.R. 6500 signed into law. White House, 2 September 2026. link
2. FOMC meeting calendars. Federal Reserve. link
3. Minutes of the FOMC, 15–16 September 2026. Federal Reserve, 7 October 2026. link
4. 2026 Congressional Primary Dates (general election 3 November 2026). Federal Election Commission. link
5. Notice of Product Exclusion Extensions. USTR, Federal Register, 1 December 2025. link
6. Notice of Modification of Section 301 Action: China's Targeted Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors. USTR, Federal Register, 13 November 2025. link
7. No mention of US-China ship taxes in trade truce. FreightWaves, 28 September 2026. link
8. US-China to extend trade war truce by 2 months. Supply Chain Dive, 24 September 2026. link
9. Trump-Xi meeting outcomes. China Briefing, 10 November 2025. link
10. 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, Shenzhen, 18–19 November 2026. Shenzhen Longgang government. link
11. United States Hosts First G20 Sherpa Meeting. US Department of State, 18 December 2025. link
12. OPEC+ press release. OPEC, 4 October 2026. link
13. Request for Public Comments and Notice of Public Hearing Relating to the Operation of the USMCA. USTR, Federal Register, 5 October 2026. link
14. Notice of Action: Brazil's Acts, Policies and Practices. USTR, Federal Register, 20 July 2026. link
15. Brazil's presidential race heads to Lula-Bolsonaro run-off as right gains ground. NPR via WUNC, 4 October 2026. link
16. Consumer Price Index, August 2026. BLS, 11 September 2026. link
17. Consumer Price Index, September 2026. BLS, 14 October 2026. link

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