High oil prices pay Russia most and leave the Gulf behind

What happened

The US Energy Information Administration said on 6 October 2026 that the Brent crude price averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 higher than in August. Daily Brent reached $131 on 15 September, after attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline briefly halted a route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. EIA expects Brent to average $96 across 2026, against $69 in 2025, and $105 in the fourth quarter.

Gulf production is still held back. EIA estimates crude oil shut-ins averaged 4.8 million barrels a day in September, down from 10.9 million at the peak in May. Saudi Arabia alone was producing 1.7 million barrels a day less than in February.

Why it matters

When oil costs more, money moves from countries that buy it to countries that sell it. How much a country gains depends on two things: how much more oil it produces than it uses, and whether it can still ship that oil out. The war in the Gulf has broken the usual pattern. The region that sells the most oil is the one that cannot get all of it to market, so a large part of the gain goes to producers far from the strait.

Who it reaches

All the figures below are my estimates. For each country I took EIA's 2026 forecast of production and subtracted its forecast of consumption, then multiplied the surplus by the $27 rise in the average Brent price. That shows roughly how much more a year's oil sales are worth than at 2025 prices. It ignores discounts, contracts and the mix of crude and fuel, so read the figures as a ranking, not a bill. Confidence: estimated. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026, tables 3b and 3e.

Russia gains the most (estimated). EIA expects Russia to produce 10.39 million barrels a day in 2026 and use 3.78 million, leaving a surplus of about 6.6 million. At $27 more a barrel, that surplus is worth about $65 billion a year more than at last year's price. Its export routes do not run through Hormuz. This assumes Russia's discount to Brent has not changed since 2025. If it has widened by more than about $9 a barrel, the United States gains more.

The United States and Canada come next (estimated). EIA expects US net exports of crude and petroleum products to average 4.33 million barrels a day in 2026, up from 2.85 million in 2025. That is worth about $43 billion a year at the higher price. Canada's surplus, about 3.83 million barrels a day, is worth about $38 billion. American drivers pay more too: EIA expects regular gasoline to average $3.91 a gallon this year, against $3.10 in 2025. So the same price rise earns money for US producers and costs US households.

Gulf producers gain less than their size suggests (reported). Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran and Qatar all have production shut in, by EIA's estimate. A higher price is no help on a barrel that cannot be shipped. EIA gives no revenue figure for these countries, so I have not estimated one.

The largest importers pay the most (estimated). By the same method, China uses about 10.5 million barrels a day more than it produces, so its oil costs about $103 billion a year more. India's gap of about 4.7 million barrels a day costs about $46 billion more. In absolute terms China pays the most. India produces less than a fifth of the oil it uses (0.98 million barrels a day against 5.64 million), and I think it will feel the cost more than China relative to the size of its economy. That last point is a judgement: EIA's tables do not measure it.

What would change this view

1. Hormuz flows. If Gulf shut-ins fall faster than EIA assumes, Gulf producers sell more and prices ease. EIA's next outlook is due on 10 November 2026.

2. Russia's discount. If the discount on Russian crude has widened by more than about $9 a barrel since 2025, through tighter sanctions or weaker demand, the United States gains more than Russia.

3. OPEC+. The seven OPEC+ countries said on 4 October that their next meeting would be held on 1 November 2026, the day this issue goes out. Check for any change to output targets.

Sources

1. Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (global oil markets). EIA, 6 October 2026. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

2. Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (full report; tables 3b, 3e and 4a). EIA, 6 October 2026. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

3. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirm commitment to market stability. OPEC, 4 October 2026. https://opec.org/pr-detail/1891616-4-october-2026.html

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