Pacific container rates fall as US import demand eases

What happened

Drewry's World Container Index fell 3% to $4,429 per 40-foot container on 29 October 2026, mainly because of the Transpacific. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 6% to $7,514, and from Shanghai to New York fell 5% to $9,631.

On Asia to Europe the picture was flatter. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 1% to $3,686, and Shanghai to Genoa was unchanged at $4,151. Drewry said it expects Transpacific rates to decrease the following week and Asia to Europe rates to stay stable.

Drewry gave two reasons. It cited a National Retail Federation forecast that US ocean import volumes will fall 11% in November from October. And it said carriers' capacity cuts were uneven: six blank sailings (cancelled voyages) were announced on the Transpacific for the following week, up from five, but only four on Asia to Europe, down from eight.

Why it matters

Fewer US imports mean fewer boxes to carry across the Pacific, so spot rates fall even though carriers cancel sailings to cut supply (inferred). On Asia to Europe, cancelled sailings fell from eight to four, so more of the fleet is available and rates held (inferred). Drewry also reports that Suez Canal transits reached 62 vessels in the latest week, the highest weekly level this year, which returns ship-days to the market.

Who it reaches

Importers buying at spot rates on the Transpacific (inferred). They pay the index rate or close to it, so a fall reaches them within a booking cycle. Source: Drewry, World Container Index, 29 October 2026.

Importers on contracts (inferred). Their rates change at the next reset, so the fall reaches them later, and by how much depends on the contract. Source: Drewry, World Container Index, 29 October 2026, which describes spot rates only.

Carriers on the Transpacific (reported). Drewry reports six blank sailings announced for the next week. That is the carriers' response to weaker demand: cutting capacity to defend rates. Source: Drewry Container Capacity Insight, via the World Container Index, 29 October 2026.

Shippers on Asia to Europe (reported). Rates were flat, and Drewry says carriers have announced higher November rate increases but it is uncertain whether they will hold, given available capacity and weak demand. Source: Drewry, World Container Index, 29 October 2026.

What would change this view

1. Drewry's next two indexes. If the Transpacific rate falls again on 5 November, as Drewry expects, that supports the demand explanation. If it rises, the carriers' capacity cuts are working. Check the World Container Index page each Thursday.

2. Blank sailings. More than six announced for the following week would mean carriers are cutting harder. Drewry's Container Capacity Insight reports the count.

3. US import volumes. The 11% fall is a National Retail Federation forecast, as cited by Drewry. A revision up in the NRF's monthly Global Port Tracker would weaken the demand story.

4. Suez and Hormuz. Drewry counted two vessels through Hormuz in the latest week. A change there, or Suez transits falling back from 62, would alter capacity. IMF PortWatch publishes both.

Sources

1. World Container Index, assessment of Thursday 29 October 2026. Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry

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