Container ships return to Suez while Red Sea tanker traffic falls

What happened

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd said on 13 September 2026 that four services in their Gemini Cooperation, AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2, would switch from the route around the Cape of Good Hope to the Suez Canal, gCaptain reported. They join two Gemini services, AE15 and AE19, already using the canal. The first westbound sailings of three of the services were scheduled for 19 to 24 September; AE12 was to follow later. The carriers said further changes depended on continued stability in the Red Sea and no further escalation.

The Suez Canal Authority said 1,358 vessels used the canal in August 2026, 27% more than in August 2025, and that revenue was $567.1 million, against $326 million a year earlier, Anadolu Agency reported.

The security picture moved the other way. Houthi forces advanced about 150 kilometres along Yemen's Red Sea coast in a week in September, capturing Mocha and reaching Bab al-Mandab, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED) said on 1 October. Since announcing a blockade of Saudi-linked shipping in July, the Houthis have attacked 10 commercial ships, mostly tankers, and struck at least six, according to ACLED. It recorded no corroborated maritime attacks after 24 August.

Why it matters

The two ends of the Red Sea now show different traffic. Container ships recorded passing through Suez averaged 10.8 a day in September and 16 a day in the first four days of October, against 9.5 a day in September 2025, according to IMF PortWatch. At Bab el-Mandeb, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, tanker transits averaged 8.0 a day in September, against about 14 a day from February to June. Container transits at Bab el-Mandeb did not rise: they averaged 5.1 a day in September, against 6.2 a year earlier. PortWatch counts ships from their location signals, which some vessels in conflict zones switch off, so the counts may understate traffic (inferred).

Part of the Suez increase may reflect cargo that would normally go to Gulf ports (inferred). With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, Maersk said in August that inbound Gulf cargo had been rerouted to alternative ports, and its AE15 service now calls at Jeddah on the Red Sea, Seatrade Maritime reported. A ship sailing from Europe to Jeddah passes through Suez but not Bab el-Mandeb, so it adds to one count and not the other (inferred).

The return adds effective capacity on Asia-Europe routes, because a voyage via Suez is shorter than one around Africa. In its 1 October index, Drewry said it expected Asia-Europe rates to keep falling over the Golden Week holiday, and that more transits through the Suez Canal were "adding effective capacity to the trade", according to DCN.

Who it reaches

A.P. Moller-Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd (companies). Five Gemini services now use Suez and a sixth, AE12, follows from 27 October, which shortens voyages but exposes ships to Red Sea risk. Confidence: reported. Sources: gCaptain, 14 September 2026; Ahram Online, 29 September 2026.

Saudi oil exports from the Red Sea (sector). The Houthis' July blockade targets Saudi-linked ships, and Saudi Arabia relies more on its Red Sea port of Yanbu while Hormuz is disrupted. ACLED said a drone attack launched from Iraq on 11 September shut the East-West pipeline, which carries crude to Yanbu, for 11 days. Confidence: reported for the attack, inferred for the reliance on Yanbu. Source: ACLED, 1 October 2026.

Suez Canal Authority and Egypt (sector). Canal revenue in August was well above a year earlier, but traffic remains below the 70 to 80 ships a day the canal handled before the Red Sea crisis began in late 2023. Confidence: reported for August, estimated for the pre-crisis range. Source: Suez Canal Authority via Daily Beirut.

What would change this view

• Attacks on container ships. Any corroborated Houthi attack on a container ship would put the Gemini decision at risk.
• The AE12 restart. Ahram Online reported that AE12 is due to resume Suez routing from 27 October.
• Bab el-Mandeb tanker counts. A recovery in tanker transits in PortWatch data would show the blockade of Saudi-linked shipping easing.

Sources

1. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd accelerate return to Suez despite Red Sea risks. gCaptain, 14 September 2026. link
2. Gemini brings four services back to Red Sea-Suez route. Seatrade Maritime, 14 September 2026. link
3. Egypt says Suez Canal 'safe' with maritime traffic operating normally. Anadolu Agency, 21 September 2026, quoting the Suez Canal Authority chairman. link
4. Houthi gains around Bab al-Mandab raise risks to Red Sea shipping and global oil markets. ACLED, 1 October 2026. link
5. Daily chokepoint transit calls, Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb. IMF PortWatch, data through 4 October 2026. link
6. World Container Index, 1 October 2026. Drewry via DCN. link
7. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd to resume Suez Canal routing for AE12 service from 27 October. Ahram Online, 29 September 2026. link
8. Maersk delivers strong Q2 and raises full-year guidance. A.P. Moller-Maersk, 13 August 2026. link

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