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Mancalë Index · method v0.2

Strait of Hormuz

Is the news about this chokepoint louder or quieter than the ships passing through it justify? Measured each week against a fixed 2019–22 normal.

Aligned

Week of 2 November 2026

Ship traffic: 3.9 ships a day, −95% against a normal of 80.9; news coverage 103× its normal. Gap −0.80. Aligned for 36 weeks.

Ship transits, % of the 2019–22 normal

Strait of Hormuz: ship transits each week from 31 Dec 2018 to 02 Nov 2026. In the latest week, 3.9 a day, −95% against normal. Lowest week: 16 Mar 2026, −98%.

News coverage, multiple of its 2019–22 normal (log scale)

Strait of Hormuz: news coverage each week as a multiple of normal. Latest week: 103×. Loudest week: 06 Apr 2026, 796×.

Mancalë gap: attention minus flow stress

Strait of Hormuz: the gap each week. Latest week: −0.80. Highest: +4.31 in the week of 15 Jul 2019. Lowest: −1.74 in the week of 28 Jan 2019.

Read with care: PortWatch counts ships from their location signals. In a conflict zone many ships switch them off, so a collapse in counted transits can overstate the fall in real traffic.

Other chokepoints

The same reading elsewhere

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