Seven Hormuz incident notices in four days; OPEC+ holds output

Welcome to Monday's briefing. UKMTO logged seven incident notices around the Strait of Hormuz between 29 October and 1 November, so that leads. Also today: container rates fell 3%, US diesel rose again, and OPEC+ left output unchanged. Dates for the week are at the end.

Rapid fire

OPEC+ holds output. The seven-country group agreed on 1 November 2026 to keep its September production levels for December; its next meeting is on 29 November (OPEC press release).

Fed holds, two dissent. The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October 2026 by a vote of 10 to 2; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted to raise it by a quarter point (Federal Reserve statement).

Tariff exclusions end soon. USTR's 178 Section 301 exclusions on Chinese goods expire at 11:59 p.m. EDT on 9 November 2026 (Federal Register notice, 1 December 2025).

Jobs data on Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October employment data at 8:30 a.m. on 6 November 2026 (BLS schedule).

Chokepoints and canal transits

Seven Hormuz incident notices in four days

The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO) issued notices 185 to 191 between 29 October and 1 November 2026. Five reported vessels struck by unknown projectiles or on fire: a tanker hit on an outbound transit on 29 October, a vessel on fire 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman the same day, a vessel hit 40 nautical miles south of Lavan Island on 30 October, a crude tanker hit while leaving the strait that day, and, on 1 November, a Mayday call reporting another vessel struck inside the strait. Crews were reported safe in the cases that said. A sixth notice, on 29 October, reported a vessel on fire 9 nautical miles north of Khasab, which regional authorities later identified as a dhow. A seventh, on 31 October, reported a fishing vessel boarded by unauthorised people. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said on 30 October that four tankers had caught fire in the strait; that is Iran's claim as reported by Reuters, and I have not seen it confirmed (UKMTO; gCaptain, citing Reuters). More attacks keep the risk premium on Gulf cargoes high, which raises insurance and charter costs for whoever ships through (inferred). Next: further UKMTO notices, and where Brent trades after Friday’s close.

Container shipping and freight rates

Container rates fall 3% as Pacific rates drop

Drewry's World Container Index fell 3% to $4,429 per 40-foot container on 29 October 2026, mainly on the Transpacific: Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 6% to $7,514 and Shanghai to New York fell 5% to $9,631. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 1% to $3,686 and Shanghai to Genoa was unchanged at $4,151. Drewry says carriers have announced six blank sailings on the Transpacific next week, against five this week, and four on Asia to Europe, against eight, and it expects Transpacific rates to fall next week and Asia to Europe rates to stay stable. It cites a National Retail Federation forecast that US ocean imports will fall 11% in November from October (Drewry). Fewer imports mean less demand for boxes, so spot rates can fall even as carriers cancel sailings (inferred). Next: Drewry's index on 5 November.

Energy and bunker costs

US diesel rises again as East Coast stocks stay low

The US average on-highway diesel price rose 7.6 cents to $6.352 a gallon on 26 October 2026; the East Coast average rose 9.5 cents to $6.079 (EIA). In the week to 23 October, US distillate stocks fell 1.46 million barrels to 102.8 million, while East Coast stocks rose 0.8 million to 21.8 million, 14.3% below a year earlier (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report). Trucking fuel surcharges that reset weekly against this price are likely to rise with it (confidence: estimated). Next: EIA's weekly diesel price on 3 November and its stocks report on 4 November.

The six

Closes on Friday, 30 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance; futures are front-month).

The week ahead

• Tue 3 November: EIA weekly diesel price. US midterm elections.

• Wed 4 November: BEA US trade in goods and services for September, 8:30 a.m. ET (BEA); EIA weekly petroleum report.

• Thu 5 November: Drewry World Container Index.

• Fri 6 November: BLS October employment report, 8:30 a.m. ET.

• Mon 9 November: Section 301 exclusions expire, 11:59 p.m. EDT.

• Tue 10 November: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (EIA).

See you Wednesday,
Alex

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