Watchmen's deadline could halt Long Beach cargo

The Novus Data Briefing
Wednesday, 4 November 2026

Good morning. The smallest group at the biggest US ports is holding the biggest deadline: about 250 watchmen, about 2% of the union workforce there, have until 5 p.m. Pacific time today. Also today: oil swings on Iran talks and strikes, a Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd service heads back to Suez, a Houthi claim nobody has confirmed, and a factory survey that is growing while paying more.

Rapid fire

• US diesel eases. The US on-highway average fell 6.0 cents to $6.292 a gallon on 2 November 2026, and the East Coast fell 5.4 cents to $6.025 (EIA.

• Indian seafarer killed off Oman. India-flagged MSV Al Jusufi was hit by an "unidentified aerial object" on 2 November 2026; one of 14 crew died, 13 were rescued, India said (Khaleej Times.

• Chinese bunker ports tight. Zhoushan lead times for VLSFO and HSFO rose to about 15 days from 12, and Tianjin reported shortages in all three major grades, on 3 November 2026 (Engine.

• Houthi claims unconfirmed. The Houthis said on 2 November 2026 they disrupted air traffic at Dammam and hit a Jizan radar; there was no immediate Saudi confirmation (CBS News.

Ports, terminals and inland connections

Watchmen's deadline could halt most Long Beach cargo

ILWU Local 26, which represents about 250 watchmen at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and the Pacific Maritime Association have until 5 p.m. Pacific time on 4 November 2026 to settle, after extending talks on 30 October (gCaptain. Employers say terminals where they work handle about 85% of Long Beach cargo and a third of Los Angeles cargo, and other dockworkers are unlikely to cross picket lines (SupplyChainBrain. More than 35,000 containers were awaiting trains on 26 October (FreshFruitPortal. Boxes stranded at the gate would likely accrue demurrage, so importers feel it as time, not freight cost (inferred). Next: the deadline.

Chokepoints and canal transits

Brent drops 7.6% on Iran talks, then US strikes Qeshm

Brent crude settled at $104.77 a barrel on 2 November 2026, down 7.6%, on hopes of a US-Iran deal (FinanceFeeds, citing CNBC. On 3 November it rose to about $106 after a reported US strike on Qeshm Island, which US officials called defensive (Reuters via Business Recorder, then eased to near $104 (Yahoo Finance. UKMTO logged over 30 attacks on ships in October, the most of the war (The National. PortWatch counted about 3 Hormuz transits a day to 25 October, against 86 in 2025 (IMF PortWatch). Attacks keep war-risk and charter costs high (inferred). Next: the next UKMTO notice.

Container shipping and freight rates

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd send ME1 back through Suez

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd said on 2 November 2026 that their joint ME1 service between India and Europe will return to the Suez Canal, with the Atlanta Express due to leave Salalah on 4 November and the Savannah Express Tangier on 13 November (The Week; El Estrecho Digital. Most shippers left the route in late 2023 after Houthi attacks, and the carriers say further changes depend on "ongoing stability in the Red Sea area" (Reuters via Yahoo Finance. A shorter voyage frees ship-days, so effective capacity on India-Europe should rise (confidence: inferred, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd). Next: that Salalah departure.

The macro data trade moves through

US factories grow again as deliveries keep slowing

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5% in October 2026 from 54.5% in September, the tenth month of growth after ten of contraction (ISM; MonitorDaily. Supplier deliveries read 59.1%, up 0.1 point; above 50% means suppliers are slower, the 11th such month. Prices paid fell to 75.2% from 77.9%. Imports rose to 52.9% from 51.0%, and inventories to 51.4% from 48.6%, the first growth after contraction (IndexBox. Diesel fuel was listed as up in price for a third month. Slower deliveries with rising imports and stocks can mean buyers are building buffers against delay (inferred). Next: BEA's trade report, 8:30 a.m. ET today.

Shipping volume

IMF PortWatch, data through 25 October 2026; I used its AIS-based count for Hormuz and did not compare other trackers this week. The Drewry World Container Index was $4,429 per 40-foot container on 29 October, down 3%, per Daily Cargo News; Drewry's next index is due 5 November.

The six

Closes on Tuesday, 3 November 2026.

Nine finer points

1. California diesel tops $8. The state average was $8.076 a gallon on 2 November 2026, down 7.9 cents (EIA). Pacific drayage surcharges likely follow (inferred).

2. Singapore bunker waits lengthen. VLSFO and HSFO lead times were 13 to 15 days on 3 November 2026 (Engine). Ships there must book earlier (inferred).

3. Busan fuel eases. VLSFO was about $1,390 a tonne on 3 November 2026, about $80 below the end of October, per a trader (Engine).

4. Shortage lists persist. ISM's October survey lists electronic components short for 20 months and memory for 10 (ISM). Electronics buyers plan around it (inferred).

5. Few export gainers. Only chemical products and transportation equipment reported higher new export orders in ISM's survey of 2 November 2026 (ISM).

6. Nhava Sheva volumes jump. It handled over 835,000 TEU in September, up 28.6% on a year, The Week reported on 3 November 2026 (The Week).

7. Red Sea shuttle. Emirates Shipping Line's South Red Sea service became a Nhava Sheva-Jeddah shuttle on 1 November 2026, per Dynaliners (The Week).

8. Maersk due Thursday. Maersk publishes its Q3 report on 5 November 2026 at about 8:00 a.m. Copenhagen time (Maersk). Rate commentary reaches shippers (inferred).

9. Another Oman-coast strike. UKMTO reported on 2 November 2026 a vessel hit on 1 November near Lima, Oman, hull holed; crew safe (CBS News).

See you Friday,
Gavin

Spot something wrong? Corrections are read first: aandg.novusdata@gmail.com.

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