Port strike deadline moves to midnight Friday

The Novus Data Briefing

Friday, 6 November 2026

Container yard, Los Angeles–Long Beach port complex. File photo. Credit: Charles Csavossy, Wikimedia Commons

Good morning. The Rhine gauge at Kaub has dropped below the lowest daily level in its reference series, a reminder that trade still moves on water. Today: a port deadline pushed back again, Maersk raising its profit guidance, oil swinging around another tanker strike, and a record month of US imports.

Rapid fire

• Tariff exclusions near expiry. USTR's 178 Section 301 China exclusions expire at 11:59 p.m. on 9 November 2026; a law-firm alert and my search of the Federal Register found no extension as of Thursday evening.

• Rhine below reference low. The Kaub gauge read 17 cm at 02:15 CET on 5 November 2026, under the 25 cm lowest daily level, set 22 October 2018.

• Codelco halts Andina. Codelco stopped processing at its Andina concentrator on 5 November 2026 after a tailings spill that may have reached a river; no restart date was given.

• Diesel stocks fall. US distillate stocks fell to 99.3 million barrels in the week to 30 October 2026, per EIA data reported by Reuters.

Port of Los Angeles, 2021. Credit: Downtowngal, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

PORTS, TERMINALS AND INLAND CONNECTIONS

Port watchmen's strike deadline slips to midnight Friday

The Pacific Maritime Association said the parties agreed to extend their contract through midnight Pacific time on Friday 6 November 2026, with federal mediators rejoining talks that day, FreightWaves reported on 5 November; JOC also reported the delay. About 250 watchmen are involved, at terminals the association says handle about 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo. The previous deadline was 5 p.m. Pacific on 4 November. A stoppage would halt gate and yard work, so importers would feel it first as delay and storage fees rather than freight rates (inferred). Next: midnight Pacific, 3 a.m. Eastern on Saturday 7 November.

Eugen Maersk, 2008 file photo. Credit: Qw345, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

CONTAINER SHIPPING AND FREIGHT RATES

Maersk raises 2026 profit guidance as spot rates ease

A.P. Moller-Maersk said on 5 November 2026 that third-quarter EBIT was $3.3bn, against $1.3bn a year earlier, on an average loaded rate of $3,287 per 40-foot-equivalent unit, up 46%. It raised 2026 EBIT guidance to $8.0bn to $8.5bn from $4.5bn to $6.5bn, and credited the Hormuz closure and East Asian congestion for higher rates. Shares were down 11% in morning trading after EBITDA missed an LSEG average; an AL Sydbank analyst told Bloomberg the guidance implies a slightly lower fourth quarter. Reuters notes some analysts expect the disruption to fade as ships return to Suez, which would erode that premium (inferred). Next: Drewry's weekly index.

Strait of Hormuz, satellite image, 4 December 2020. Credit: NASA GSFC MODIS team

CHOKEPOINTS AND CANAL TRANSITS

Oil falls 8%, then rebounds, as another tanker is struck

UKMTO said a tanker was hit by two unidentified projectiles about 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, at 23:20 GMT on 4 November 2026; crew status was unconfirmed (Anadolu; Dawn). Brent had fallen more than 8% that day to its lowest settlement since 31 August, then rose 3.88% to $98.29 on 5 November. The same Reuters report put October vessel hits at 35, the most of the war. Marine fuel followed crude: very-low-sulphur fuel fell $67 a tonne in Singapore. Swings this large make quick surcharge cuts unlikely (estimated). Next: the next UKMTO notice.

Container port, Miami. File photo. Credit: James R. Tourtellotte, US CBP

THE MACRO DATA TRADE MOVES THROUGH

US imports hit a record as suppliers slow again

The US trade deficit narrowed to $105.0bn in September 2026 from a revised $105.7bn, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on 4 November. Imports rose $5.2bn to $426.6bn, a record per Reuters, with capital goods up $11.6bn, led by computers. The same day, the ISM services survey put supplier deliveries at 56.7%, 3.5 points slower than in September. Record inbound volume with longer lead times suggests buyers are importing early and absorbing delay rather than facing a demand slump (inferred). Next: the October jobs report, 8:30 a.m. Eastern today.

Shipping volume

IMF PortWatch, data through 25 October 2026; no new release since Wednesday's issue, and I used its AIS-based Hormuz count. The Drewry World Container Index fell 1% to $4,389 per 40-foot container on 5 November 2026.

The six

Closes on Thursday, 5 November 2026. Brent is Reuters' settlement; the other futures and the stocks are Yahoo Finance's last prices.

Nine finer points

• Bridge closure. Caltrans will close the Vincent Thomas Bridge at 12:01 a.m. on 7 November 2026 for 16 months; trucks are nearly 9% of traffic.

• Copper premium. LME three-month copper fell to $13,828.50 a tonne on 5 November 2026 while Shanghai's Yangshan premium matched its 2013 record, Mining.com reported.

• Codelco output restated. Its chair said on 5 November 2026 that 42,100 tonnes of reported output was inflated; it expects about 1.2 million tonnes in 2026.

• Air freight eases. The TAC Index fell 1.1% week on week to 2 November 2026 but sits 22.8% above a year earlier.

• Pacific bunker surcharge. Swire Shipping will add $1,070 per 40-foot container on global-to-Pacific trades for bills of lading from 15 November 2026.

• Truck orders slump. Preliminary North American Class 8 orders were 15,600 in October 2026, down 36% on a year earlier, per FTR data.

• Drivers sidelined. The Transportation Department says 33,000 drivers have been put out of service over English-proficiency checks, FreightWaves reported on 4 November 2026.

• Early Lunar New Year. The holiday starts 6 February 2027, 11 days earlier than in 2026, which JOC reports will pull exporters' bookings into December.

• Korea eyes Hormuz. South Korea will send patrol aircraft and an ordnance-disposal team near the strait, its defence ministry said on 5 November 2026.

See you Sunday,
Gavin

Spot something wrong? Corrections are read first: aandg.novusdata@gmail.com.

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