US and China extend port-fee truce

Sorry we're late today. This issue went out later than usual.

The Novus Data Briefing
Wednesday, 11 November 2026

File photo, 2017: Cosco ship, Port of Seattle. Credit: Ron Clausen, CC BY-SA 4.0

Good morning. Suez is carrying about 15% more ships a day than its 2025 average, while Panama runs about 12% below it, according to IMF PortWatch's latest data. Today's issue covers the extended US–China pause on port fees, oil's slide with Hormuz still under fire, a labor deadline at Los Angeles and Long Beach, and a Rhine still too shallow.

Rapid fire

• Export-control pause holds. Commerce extended its suspension of the Affiliates Rule, which covers firms 50% or more owned by listed entities, to 10 January 2027, effective 9 November. Federal Register, Baker McKenzie

• EIA outlook. EIA forecasts Brent spot near $100 a barrel through December in its 10 November outlook; it finalised its inputs on 5 November, before Brent futures fell 5.9% on 9 November. EIA

• Retail diesel falls. US on-highway diesel averaged $6.127 a gallon on 9 November, down 16.5 cents on the week, EIA said on 10 November. EIA

File photo, 2019: ship-to-shore cranes, Seattle. Credit: Joe Mabel, CC BY-SA 4.0

Trade policy

Port-fee pause extended to January

Effective 9 November, the US Trade Representative suspended its port fees on Chinese-linked ships and its duties on ship-to-shore cranes and other cargo-handling equipment until 10 January 2027, and extended 178 Section 301 tariff exclusions (fees, exclusions). The previous suspension ran a year; this one runs two months. China matched it, extending its pause on fees for US-linked ships and its export-control waivers to 10 January. Carriers could have passed those fees on, so the pause lowers that risk through January (inferred). Next: the APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen on 18–19 November, where Reuters reports Trump is expected to meet Xi.

File photo, 2021: Strait of Hormuz from orbit. Credit: NASA

Energy and chokepoints

Brent fell 16% in a week; Hormuz ships still hit

Brent closed at $91.49 on 10 November (Yahoo Finance), 7% below 6 November's $98.32. Reuters said the 16% fall in the week to 6 November was the steepest since COVID began, and tied the 9 November slide to Trump's 8 November remark that a fresh attack on Iran was highly unlikely while talks continue. JPMorgan estimated an October surplus of about 1.4 million barrels daily. Ships are still being hit: Maritime Executive reported at least two tankers attacked on 7 November, and Stars and Stripes reported US Central Command disabled cargo ship Huda that day, alleging a blockade breach. Next: whether the talks hold.

File photo, 2016: Long Beach port from orbit. Credit: Planet Labs, CC BY-SA 4.0

Ports and labor

Los Angeles port strike delayed to 20 November

On 6 November the Pacific Maritime Association and ILWU Local 26 extended the contract covering about 250 port watchmen to 20 November, the employer group said. The deadline had already moved from 1 November to 4 November and then to midnight on 6 November, Bloomberg reported. The contract covers about 2% of the port complex's workers, but the PMA says disruption at the terminals where Local 26 works could affect about 85% of Long Beach cargo and a third of Los Angeles cargo. Next: more talks before 20 November.

File photo, August 2026: barge on the Rhine. Credit: Rolf Kranz, CC BY-SA 4.0

Rivers and logistics

Rhine at Kaub hit 5 centimetres, then rose to 18

The Kaub gauge on the Rhine fell to 5 cm late on 7 November and read 18 cm at 18:00 CET on 11 November, per Germany's waterways authority. Bloomberg reported on 5 November that the authority forecast as little as 5 cm by 9 November, against a five-year average above 150 cm, and that Rotterdam–Basel diesel freight was near a record in data back to 2018. Spotbarge's Sebastiaan Kosman told Bloomberg only low-water barges can pass Kaub. Smaller loads mean higher freight per tonne (inferred). Ineos said it has cut Cologne petrochemical output this year because of low water. Next: the authority's Kaub forecast.

Shipping volume

IMF PortWatch data through 8 November; Hormuz looks low against Lloyd's List Intelligence's weekly average of 121 non-Iranian-linked transits (about 17 a day) on 5–25 October; the two count differently. Drewry's World Container Index fell 1% to $4,389 per 40ft container on 5 November.

The six

Closes on Tuesday, 10 November 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance; day change is versus 9 November.

Five finer points

1. Barge rates. St. Louis held at 564% of the 1976 tariff in the week to 3 November, up 13% on the year (USDA).

2. Container lanes. Shanghai–Los Angeles held at $7,539 per 40ft on 5 November; Shanghai–New York fell 3% to $9,303 (Drewry).

3. Iraq's Hormuz lane. Iraq's foreign minister said Baghdad reached understandings with Washington to ship oil through a lane near Oman (Reuters).

4. Diesel outlook. EIA forecasts US retail diesel averaging $5.03 a gallon in 2027, 12% above its October forecast, in its 10 November outlook (EIA).

5. Malacca scale. Malacca's 235.9 daily transits are 5.3 times Suez's; of the five chokepoints, only Malacca sits within 1% of its 2025 average (PortWatch).

Drewry updates its container index on 12 November.

See you Friday,

Gavin

Spot something wrong? Corrections are read first: aandg.novusdata@gmail.com.

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